Future & Conditional of Probability

Será, estará, habrá for guessing. Use future tense to wonder about the present, conditional for the past.

Future tense to guess about the PRESENT

In Spanish, the future tense can express probability or wonder — not just future actions!

¿Qué hora será? = I wonder what time it is. (NOT "what time will it be")
Estará en casa. = He's probably at home. (NOT "he will be at home")
Tendrá unos 30 años. = She must be about 30.

Side-by-side: future as future vs future as probability

Future action: Mañana iré al cine. (Tomorrow I'll go to the movies.)
Probability: ¿Dónde estará Juan? (Where could Juan be? / I wonder where Juan is.)
Future action: Será un buen día. (It will be a good day.)
Probability: Será verdad. (It's probably true. / It must be true.)

Common probability expressions

ExpressionMeaningExample
¿Quién será?Who could that be?Tocan la puerta. ¿Quién será?
¿Qué hora será?I wonder what time it is.No tengo reloj. ¿Qué hora será?
Tendrá + numberMust be about...Tendrá unos 40 años.
¿Dónde estará?Where can it be?No encuentro las llaves. ¿Dónde estarán?
Será que...It must be that...Será que no quiere venir.

Conditional to guess about the PAST

The conditional expresses probability about a past event

¿Qué hora sería cuando llegó? (What time must it have been when he arrived?)
Tendría unos 20 años cuando se casó. (He must have been about 20 when he married.)
Estaría cansado, por eso se durmió. (He was probably tired, that's why he fell asleep.)

Future perfect for probability about recent past

Habrá + participle = must have / probably has

Ya habrá llegado. (He must have arrived by now.)
Se habrá perdido. (He's probably gotten lost.)
Habrán salido ya. (They must have left already.)
¿Habrá terminado? (Do you think he's finished?)

Equivalents in English

Spanish (probability)English equivalent
Será verdad.It must be true. / It's probably true.
¿Quién será?Who could that be? / I wonder who it is.
Estaría cansado.He was probably tired. / He must have been tired.
Habrá salido.He must have left. / He's probably left.

Quick quiz

1. ¿Qué hora _____? (I wonder what time it is)

2. Tocan la puerta. ¿Quién _____? (Who could it be?)

3. _____ unos 40 años. (He must be about 40.)

4. ¿Dónde _____ las llaves? (Where can they be?)

5. _____ cansado, por eso se durmió. (probably was — past)

6. Ya _____ llegado. (He must have arrived.)

7. The future of probability guesses about the _____.

8. The conditional of probability guesses about the _____.

9. Se _____ perdido. (He's probably gotten lost.)

10. "Será verdad" means _____.

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